From Dr. Frager’s Desk: Is Iran Regime Change A Distinct Possibility?
anti-regime protesters in Iran. Photo: Darafsh Kaviyani CC license
11/30/2022, 1:00:36 AM
My Iranian Jewish friends who live in the United States tell me that regime change in Iran is a real and definite possibility. Could the Biden Administration do more to make this happen? You bet they could. The continued attempts to salvage an agreement with Iran along the lines of the JCPOA deal struck by President Obama is only making regime change less likely. It is strengthening the hands of the Ayatollahs.
This is precisely the opposite of what should be done given the level of protests ever since 22 year old Mahsa Amini was killed by the Iranian Morality Police for not wearing a Hijab properly. She died three days after being taken into custody in the hospital on September 16th, 2022. Protests ensued the likes of which have not been seen in Iran since the Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the Shah of Iran in 1979.
Over 326 protesters including 40 children have been killed.(This is probably a very low estimate. It probably is in the 1000’s at this point). On September 20th a 16 year old girl Nika Shahkarami went missing and was later found dead. The Islamic Republic’s brutality and repressive tactics are well known. Despite the iron fist crackdown, the protests and rallies continue. This is the best chance since 1979 for regime change.
The Ayatollah Khameini on October 3rd accused the United States and Israel of fomenting the protests. This is as far from the truth as possible. The United States has done very little to encourage the protests and as stated above has only tried strengthening the hand of the Ayatollah’s by seeking a new Nuclear Deal.
No new sanctions have been imposed. Barely a whisper was heard from the Biden Administration over Iran’s supplying drones to Russia in their fight against the Ukraine. Everything was kept low key so as to do everything possible to finalize a New Iran Nuclear Deal.
This remains the modus operandi.
America could do a lot more to help the protesters and bring about regime change. If regime change does not happen it is a failure of the West to capitalize on a very significant opportunity.
Israel for its part has been involved in an Election and has had no involvement whatsoever in the Iranian Protests. America and America alone bears the responsibility for bringing about regime change in Iran. Regime change is the safest approach to the Iranian situation. The alternative is bombing the nuclear reactors. Although I have stated on more than one occasion that this may be necessary and feasible, I would much prefer regime change.
The protesters in Iran have been very effective. They recently set fire to the ancestral home of the Ayatollah Khomenei who brought about the overthrow of the Shah. Despite harsh and barbaric methods by the Iranian Police there does not appear to be a let up in sight.
On September 22nd, the Iranians squelched the use of the two most important social media platforms, What’s App and Instagram. The West must help Communication in Iran with other media platforms.
The Old Guard hardliners in Iran are getting to an advanced age and weak. The protesters are young and vibrant and represent the future of Iran. I am more optimistic today than at any time in 43 years that the Ayatollahs can and will be toppled. I hope the Biden Administration is finally seeing it the same way.